Step 4 - Football trading strategy
What follows is a strategy for trading soccer matches inrunning or inplay. It is simple, effective and easy to understand. Plenty of matches result in a draw, but only about 1 in 20, or 5% result in a noscore draw. Converted to digital odds this would be 20.
On Betfair’s Match Odds the only outcomes that can be bet on are:
Home Win · Away Win · Draw (there is no option to bet on noscore draws)
The method: ·
Select matches where the odds for Home Win, Away Win and Draw are reasonably in line. This does not necessarily mean that the teams are well matched and it can be useful if you can pick teams that do not have similar form.
· LAY the DRAW · When the match is underway wait for a goal to be scored (you need to be in touch with the match either by watching it on television, listening to a live radio commentary or any other means to inform you about what is going on), at which point trading will be suspended.
· When trading resumes the odds for the draw will almost certainly have moved out. · BACK the DRAW at the increased odds either to give yourself a Guaranteed Profit or a No Lose situation using the calculations you have seen in previous chapters.
Between the time you have placed your LAY BET and the time of the match the odds may move to your advantage to enable you to BACK the DRAW for a Guaranteed Profit or a NO LOSE situation. If this situation does not arise then move to the next stage. Before you use this strategy, I advocate three things: practice, practice and practice. Observe how the market behaves; get a “feel” for it. Paper trade for a time and see how At this point it is advisable to act as quickly as possible because the first odds on display following resumption of trading lean to the high side (to our advantage) and they will usually shorten soon after. Now that you know how to ask for your own odds, which you have seen in previous chapters, you may wish to ask for odds which you think will be taken. Don’t be too greedy; if the odds you ask for are too high someone is simply going to undercut you, leaving you to take the available odds. The message is act as quickly as possible following resumption of trading after a goal has been scored. As you gain confidence, and when that first goal is scored, you may wish to look for further trades. BACKING & LAYING, LAYING & BACKING, waiting for any indications that will swing odds in your favour for a profitable trade.
WHAT DO I DO IF NO GOALS ARE SCORED TOWARDS THE END OF THE MATCH?
To reduce your original liability, and if there is no alternative, it is advisable to tradeout at a loss.
Important:
You can tune up this strategy a bit (although reducing your profits but also making a risk free situation) by:
BACKING 0:0 before the game (I personally suggest looking for odds higher than 15.00, basically you have to look for a game with high scoring predicitons).Here is the online calculator for this
LAY / DRAW hedging:
Click here
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